Spatially overlapping salmon species have varied population response to early life history mortality from increased peak flows
Publication: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
9 December 2021
Abstract
In the Pacific Northwest, USA, climate change is expected to result in a shift in average hydrologic conditions and increase variability. The relative vulnerabilities to peak flow changes among salmonid species within the same basin have not been widely evaluated. We assessed the impacts of predicted increases in peak flows on four salmonid populations in the Chehalis River basin. Coupling observations of peak flows, emissions projections, and multi-stage Beverton–Holt matrix-type life cycle models, we ran 100-year simulations of spawner abundance under baseline, mid-century, and late-century climate change scenarios. Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) shared the highest projected increase in interannual variability (SD = ±15%). Spring Chinook salmon had the greatest reduction in median spawner abundance (–13% to –15%), followed by coho and fall Chinook salmon (–7% to –9%), then steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) (–4%). Our results show that interspecies and life history variability within a single basin is important to consider. Species with diverse age structures are partially buffered from population variability, which may increase population resilience to climate change.
Résumé
Il est prévu que, dans la région du Pacific Northwest (États-Unis), les changements climatiques entraîneront un changement des conditions hydrologiques moyennes et une plus grande variabilité. Les vulnérabilités relatives aux variations des débits de pointe de différentes espèces de salmonidés dans un même bassin n’ont pas été largement évaluées. Nous avons évalué les impacts des augmentations projetées des débits de pointe sur quatre populations de salmonidés dans le bassin de la rivière Chehalis. En jumelant des observations des débits de pointe, des projections d’émissions et des modèles matriciels de Beverton–Holt à plusieurs étapes du cycle biologique, nous avons effectué des simulations sur 100 ans de l’abondance de géniteurs dans des scénarios climatiques de référence, du milieu du siècle et de la fin du siècle. Les saumons cohos (Oncorhynchus kisutch) et les saumons chinooks (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) du printemps présentent tous deux la plus grande augmentation de la variabilité interannuelle (ÉT = ±15 %). Les saumons chinooks du printemps montrent la plus importante diminution de l’abondance médiane de géniteurs (de –13 % à –15 %), suivis des saumons cohos et des saumons chinooks de l’automne (de –7 % à –9 %), puis des truites arc-en-ciel anadromes (Oncorhynchus mykiss) (–4 %). Nos résultats démontrent qu’il importe de tenir compte de la variabilité interspécifique et des cycles biologiques à l’intérieur d’un même bassin. La variabilité des populations d’espèces présentant une diversité de structures d’âges est partiellement atténuée, ce qui peut accroître la résilience de ces espèces dans un contexte de changements climatiques. [Traduit par la Rédaction]
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Published In
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
Volume 79 • Number 2 • February 2022
Pages: 342 - 351
History
Received: 16 February 2021
Accepted: 2 August 2021
Version of record online: 9 December 2021
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Colin L. Nicol, Jeffrey C. Jorgensen, Caleb B. Fogel, Britta Timpane-Padgham, and Timothy J. Beechie. 2022. Spatially overlapping salmon species have varied population response to early life history mortality from increased peak flows. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.
79(2): 342-351. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2021-0038
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