How to cope with changing demand conditions — The Swedish forest sector as a case study: an analysis of major drivers of change in the use of wood resources

Publication: Canadian Journal of Forest Research
18 April 2013

Abstract

Promotion of renewable energy sources in Europe is foreseen to result in a dramatic increase in the demand for woody biomass. This paper assesses whether wood resources in the European Union (EU) will support future demand. Possible implications for countries with ample forest resources and a well-developed forest industry, such as Sweden, of an expected mounting demand pressure are discussed. Other drivers of change in global wood product markets posing challenges for the forest sector in general are also addressed. These drivers are reviewed and, together with the results from the EUwood project and econometric wood market models, analyzed as to their impacts on the Swedish forest sector. Demand is foreseen to vastly exceed the potential supply of woody biomass in Europe, putting a tremendous pressure on the Swedish forest resource and necessitating trade-offs between different ecosystem services. Further, projections suggest that Sweden will decrease in importance in production as well as consumption terms for all wood products.

Résumé

On prévoit que la promotion des sources d'énergie renouvelable en Europe entraînera une augmentation spectaculaire de la demande de biomasse ligneuse. Cet article évalue si les ressources ligneuses de l'Union européenne pourront supporter la demande future. Les conséquences possibles de l'augmentation pressentie de la pression de la demande pour les pays, comme la Suède, qui possèdent amplement de ressources forestières et une industrie forestière bien développée sont abordées. Les autres facteurs de changement dans les marchés mondiaux des produits du bois qui présentent des défis pour le secteur forestier en général sont également examinés. Ces facteurs sont passés en revue et, de pair avec les résultats du projet EUwood et ceux des modèles économétriques du marché du bois, sont analysés quant à leurs impacts sur le secteur forestier suédois. On prévoit que la demande dépassera largement l'approvisionnement potentiel de biomasse ligneuse en Europe, ce qui mettra une énorme pression sur la ressource forestière suédoise et nécessitera des compromis entre différents services de l'écosystème. De plus, les projections indiquent que la Suède perdra de l'importance en termes de production et de consommation de tous les produits du bois. [Traduit par la Rédaction]

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cover image Canadian Journal of Forest Research
Canadian Journal of Forest Research
e-First • April 2013
Pages: 405 - 418

History

Received: 28 March 2012
Accepted: 17 September 2012
Published online: 18 April 2013

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Ragnar Jonsson
Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, SLU, Alnarp, Sweden.

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